A 770% rise in Dangote Refinery’s jet fuel exports highlights Africa’s increasing presence in global aviation markets

A 770% rise in Dangote Refinery’s jet fuel exports highlights Africa’s increasing presence in global aviation markets

New shipment data from analytics firm Kpler shows that exports from the refinery increased by about 770 per cent between April 2024 and April 2026, rising from roughly 18,000 barrels per day (bpd) at the start of operations to a record 158,000 bpd by April 2026.

The expansion reflects both rising global demand for aviation fuel and a strategic repositioning of supply routes amid geopolitical tensions that are reshaping global trade flows, particularly between the Middle East, Europe, and Africa.

When exports began in April 2024, the refinery’s shipments were largely experimental, with no deliveries to Europe and a focus on regional markets. By April 2026, Europe had become the largest destination, receiving about 70,000 bpd. That marks a sharp increase from 30,000 bpd in April 2025, driven by European efforts to diversify away from traditional Gulf suppliers amid heightened geopolitical instability in the Middle East.

Industry analysts attribute much of this shift to rising security risks in key maritime corridors, including the Red Sea, which has disrupted established shipping routes.

The result has been a reconfiguration of supply chains, with European buyers increasingly favouring West African cargoes due to shorter and less exposed transit routes.

From Lagos, shipments to Europe now take significantly less time than from the Persian Gulf to Rotterdam, reducing exposure to contested waters and lowering logistical risk for airline fuel suppliers.

Africa has also emerged as a strong growth market for the refinery. Regional exports increased from 18,000 bpd in April 2024 to 69,000 bpd in April 2026, representing a 283 per cent rise over the period. Within the last year alone, shipments to neighbouring African markets more than doubled, increasing by about 115 per cent.

This growth has been linked to the refinery’s role in reducing Africa’s reliance on imported aviation fuel from Europe, the Mediterranean, and Asia. By supplying a regional source of jet fuel, the facility has helped stabilise prices and reduce the impact of global freight volatility on African airlines.

The Americas have shown a more volatile pattern. Early shipments stood at 19,000 bpd in June 2024 before peaking at around 55,000 bpd in February 2025. However, by April 2026, volumes had eased to about 14,000 bpd as the refinery redirected more supply to higher-margin European markets.